Software: The 80 percent reset

In December 2021, Airtable raised 735 million dollars at a valuation of 11.7 billion. On 4 August 2026, it agreed to be acquired by Bending Spoons at an enterprise value of 1.285 billion dollars, or approximately 2.25 billion in equity value once the company’s net cash is included. PitchBook put the discount at roughly 80 percent from the peak. Read as a headline, that is a collapse. Read as a transaction, it is a repricing, and the mechanics of that repricing deserve considerably more attention in boardrooms than the number itself.

Start with what was actually bought. Airtable’s annual recurring revenue stood at approximately 480 million dollars as of June 2026, growing at more than 20 percent year on year, across more than 500,000 organisations, including 80 percent of the Fortune 100. The business is sound. At 1.285 billion of enterprise value, it changed hands at roughly 2.7 times ARR. In 2021, on reported ARR a little above 100 million dollars, the same company carried a mark above 100 times. Nothing about the product deteriorated by that factor. What changed was the cost of capital and the discipline of the buyer pool.

The buyer matters as much as the price. Bending Spoons, based in Milan, listed on Nasdaq on 1 July 2026 at 29 dollars per share, raising 1.68 billion dollars at a valuation of approximately 18.4 billion, and closed its first day roughly 40 percent higher. Its model is well established: acquire mature software brands, Evernote, WeTransfer, Vimeo, Eventbrite, AOL among them, operate them with substantially leaner teams, and keep investing in the product. Airtable is its first acquisition since the listing. The structural point is this: a listed consolidator with permanent capital, access to debt markets and now a public currency has become a standing bid for assets the venture market can no longer refinance. That buyer did not exist at this scale in 2021, and its arrival is the reason these transactions are now clearing.

Here is the part founders should read twice, because it is where the real lesson sits. Airtable raised approximately 1.36 billion dollars across its life. In a 2.25 billion dollar equity outcome, the preference stack is served first. Depending on terms, recent rounds can be made whole while common shareholders, founders and employees among them, divide what remains. A founder who reads only the headline number takes away the wrong lesson. The right one is harder: every dollar raised at a premium valuation is priced, and the price is usually paid in the waterfall, on a day nobody models at the time of the round. Valuation is a negotiating position. Distributable value is the outcome. They are not the same instrument, and the gap between them widens with every round taken above trend.

This reframes the question of when to sell. The instinct that a sale is what happens once the preferred path fails was reasonable in 2021, when capital was inexpensive and rising marks felt close to guaranteed. It is far less reasonable now. The point is not that founders should sell. It is that a sale should be evaluated as a live option, with the same rigour applied to a financing round, at every board cycle rather than at the end of a stalled process. There is no prize for being last to accept that the market has moved. Airtable is not an isolated case: Tegus went from 3.3 billion dollars in 2021 to 930 million in its 2024 sale to AlphaSense, a 72 percent discount, and the 2021 and 2022 vintage still holds names carrying marks that revenue does not yet support. Some will grow into them. Most will negotiate. Note also that Airtable traded at around 4 billion dollars in the secondary market earlier this year. Even the corrected private mark was some 45 percent above the clearing price, which should give any board pause before treating a carrying value as evidence.

Artificial intelligence is accelerating this adjustment rather than causing it, and the distinction matters. Competing credibly now requires a pace of investment across infrastructure, talent and the model layer that only genuine scale can sustain, and that arithmetic is indifferent to geography. A strong founding team in Warsaw, Nairobi, São Paulo or Lisbon faces the same constraint as one in San Francisco. Founders without a credible and financed path to that scale are, sensibly, more open to conversations they would have declined three years ago.

None of this argues that every company should sell, or that every acquirer is the right home. The Bending Spoons model is lean and, at times, unsentimental: 129 Evernote employees were let go in February 2023 as operations moved to Europe. Continued product investment is the company’s stated commitment, and a founder should test it through references from prior acquisitions rather than accept the positioning. The transaction is also signed rather than closed, with completion expected later in 2026 subject to regulatory approvals.

For boards and their advisors, the work is straightforward and rarely done. Understand your own waterfall before the offer arrives, not after. Know what each of your rounds actually costs at a range of exit values. Keep a current view of who the disciplined cash buyers are in your category, and what they pay. Prepare the option before you need it, because the only reliable way to negotiate from strength is to be able to decline.

The reset is not a verdict on the last cycle. It is an invitation to price this one accurately

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